BTC Update 04/23/2024, 64471(+0.39%)
Journaling Days: 10
BTC printed its lowest 64471 at 09:09/04/22/2024
BTC printed its highest 67222 at 06:12/04/23/2024.
Journal time: April 22th-23th. 7am-7am UTC+7.
News Maker
Comprehensive Report: Bitcoin's Supply Shock, Mining Landscape, and Mt. Gox Repayments
The Bitcoin ecosystem is experiencing a significant transformation, driven by the recent halving event, changes in the mining landscape, and the long-awaited repayments to Mt. Gox users. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the current market situation, highlighting the key factors contributing to the potential supply shock, the competitiveness of mining companies, and the implications of Mt. Gox repayments on the Bitcoin market.
Supply Shock and Mining Landscape
The Bitcoin halving, which occurred on April 19, has reduced the mining reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, leading to a constrained supply of Bitcoin. This event is expected to trigger a supply shock, causing increased price volatility and potentially surging Bitcoin's price to new all-time highs. According to Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, "The halving is when we're going to really see supply shock take hold. The ETFs have been slowly draining the market of available Bitcoin, and now the production rate will be cut in half."
The mining landscape is also undergoing significant changes. The halving has impacted Bitcoin miners, who must now optimize their operations to maintain profitability. High-efficiency operations are likely to dominate, pushing less efficient miners out of the market unless they upgrade their technologies. Additionally, institutional demand for Bitcoin is on the rise, with U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, such as those operated by BlackRock and Fidelity, accumulating around 3,000 BTC daily, significantly outpacing the daily production rate of 450 BTC.
Hut 8's Competitive Edge
Hut 8, a U.S. Bitcoin miner, has been identified as a competitive player in the post-halving world. Analysts from Benchmark initiated coverage on Hut 8, issuing a "buy" rating and setting a $12 target for the firm's share price. Hut 8's diversified revenue streams, including self-mining, cloud computing, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence services, position it to weather severe downturns in Bitcoin's price better than most of its listed peers.
Mt. Gox Repayments and Market Impact
Mt. Gox, the infamous Bitcoin exchange that was hacked over a decade ago, has begun repaying its users. While this development brings hope to those affected, it also raises concerns about the potential impact on the Bitcoin market. With over 200,000 BTC to be released, the selling pressure could dampen Bitcoin's bullish sentiment and ongoing price recovery. The timing of the repayment and the users' strategy toward holding or selling their BTC and Bitcoin Cash will be critical factors determining the long-term effects on Bitcoin's price.
Key Data and Numbers:
Bitcoin price: $67,069 (as of the time of writing)
Daily Bitcoin output: 450 BTC
Institutional demand: 3,000 BTC daily (U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs)
Hut 8's self-mining hash rate: 5.4 exahash per second (EH/S)
Marathon Digital's self-mining hash rate: 27.8 EH/s
Mt. Gox's remaining assets: 143,000 BCH and 69 billion Japanese yen
Bitcoin Cash price: $510 (reflecting a 2.1% increase over the past 24 hours and an 8.5% growth over the past month)
In conclusion, the Bitcoin ecosystem is experiencing a significant transformation, driven by the halving event, changes in the mining landscape, and the Mt. Gox repayments. As the market navigates through these developments, it is essential to monitor the supply and demand dynamics, the competitiveness of mining companies, and the implications of Mt. Gox repayments on the Bitcoin market.
BTC Prediction for 04/23-24/24
Short target 67222
Long target: 64470.5
Prediction expired at 04/24/24.07:00 am UTC+7.
BTC Prediction for 04/22-23/24 (Update)#1
At 10:45/22/04/24, my short target 65678.5 was opened. The short opening for a while gave me green from 11:13 to 11:48. My TP for this position is 65399.0, and I plan to update this opening until BTC crosses the TP I mentioned.
BTC 04/15-16/24 Prediction (Update)Final
After a 7x update, I can finally close the BTC 04/15-16/24 prediction with a big smile, long at 63820. At 05:53/04/23/2024, BTC crossed the 67k closing target and brought me 498.28% in my Binance future 100x account. FYI, with Binance, I can take 125x leverage and open that position with a smaller initial margin. At the writing time, the initial margin to open 125x leverage is 25.53 USDT for 0.05BTC and 31.91 USDT for 100x leverage. The downside is that PnL has kept the same whether I took 125x or 100x. It is 159USDT